If you’ve ever run a marketing pipeline forecast, you know the feeling: that creeping early-quarter panic when the numbers look lighter than expected.
And if you haven’t, here’s a glimpse into this world: about three weeks into a new quarter, after a flurry of forecasting and spreadsheet wrangling, the numbers roll in. They’re... a little soft and suddenly, the ideas start flying — emergency webinars, “growth blitz” campaigns, leadership calling for an all-hands-on-deck push.
But once I moved our forecasting into a data app, I realized using a different tool helped tremendously and evolved our forecasting strategy. The app could pull in historical data in ways spreadsheets never could, and it changed everything.
So, if you’re responsible for projecting marketing or revenue forecasts, I suggest you make the switch from spreadsheets to data apps. It’s easy, compounds over time, and will make those early-quarter moments a lot less chaotic and a lot more predictable.
Why spreadsheets fail at pipeline forecasting
When I first tackled pipeline forecasting years ago, everything lived in spreadsheets. Yes, we eventually would upload the spreadsheet results into dashboard tools and show the forecasts there – but all of the actual work was happening outside of the data tools.
The system was painfully limited. I built primitive pacing models that used static conversion data to estimate when Stage 0 and Stage 1 opportunities would hit, but everything was disjointed. We could get to the average number of days between an asset download and an opportunity created, but that didn’t mean all of the expected opportunities would truly get created on that day.
Static models like this led to lumpy and inaccurate forecasts that hurt more than helped. The fundamental problem was trying to build sophisticated forecasting in a spreadsheet that simply wasn't designed for it.
This left us making forecasts with unreliable data. We couldn't point to the forecast we expected every week and actually feel confident that it would end up that way.
Why building forecasts using a data app was so much better
That all changed when I joined Hex and started using our own product for pipeline forecasting. Instead of using static spreadsheets with elementary forecast calculations, I could now:
Ingest campaign data directly from our CRM, saving me from tedious uploads
Utilize up-to-date conversion rates, rather than point-in-time historicals that I needed to manually update
Model time-to-convert patterns specific to each pipeline generating activity
Build forecasts that continuously learn from our most recent trends
The breakthrough was redesigning the model to be data-warehouse centric. Instead of assuming all opportunities from a campaign would convert based on a static average time between stages, I analyzed historical conversion curves over time, broken down by account segment and program type.
Now I can say with confidence: "When this webinar happens on Tuesday, we can expect [x] opportunities to be created that same week, [x] more in the weeks after, and even still some opportunities generated in the months following" — all based on recent conversion trends, not outdated assumptions.
Here's a simplified example of what our forecasting data app looks like with demo data.
Why this matters: No more fire drills
The problem that has always lurked beneath the surface of pipeline management is the panic that ensues when weekly numbers dip below average. Leadership understandably wants to take preliminary action and start brainstorming campaigns. Better safe than sorry, right?
But with our Hex app, we've dramatically reduced that organizational anxiety. We can show, with data, that we can still hit plan even if pipeline isn't evenly distributed throughout the quarter.
I can walk into meetings and say, "We expect lighter pipeline this week, but with three upcoming events, we'll see a significant increase in the following weeks. We're still on track to hit our target." No panic, no emergency spending, no fire drills.
The compounding effect of better infrastructure
The beauty of building this in Hex rather than spreadsheets is how it continues to evolve each quarter:
Q1: First, we built the foundation, gaving leadership visibility they'd never had into when pipeline would actually materialize
Q2: Next, we redesigned the forecast with more advanced modeling that incorporated segment-specific conversion rates and 90-day conversion windows
Q3: Then, we integrated directly with CRM records so marketing teams could input their campaigns in one place and see projections automatically built in our data warehouse
Now, I'm exploring how Hex's AI capabilities can take our forecasting to the next level. We're working on automatically generating baseline, conservative, and aggressive forecast scenarios, identifying emerging trends, and dynamically adjusting evergreen forecasts - all of which opens up exciting possibilities for even more sophisticated pipeline planning.
Why it's worth the switch
This app has become the cornerstone of how we approach pipeline:
Strategic planning: Before each quarter begins and in annual planning cycles, we use it to identify gaps early and adjust campaign mix before problems emerge
Weekly triage: During the quarter, we compare actuals to forecasts across stages, segments, and programs, quickly spotting where we're falling short and why
Leadership alignment: We've dramatically reduced the "fire drill" mentality by building trust in our forecasting model
Conversational self-serve: Now our team can go straight to Threads to ask about our pipeline forecasts without even needing to access the app.
The ability to build this in Hex, collaborate with our data team, and quickly share new iterations has transformed how our entire organization thinks about pipeline forecasting. All because of what's possible when you have data at your fingertips in an easy-to-use platform with powerful AI capabilities.
If you're serious about transforming your GTM operation, start with the infrastructure. Accurate forecasting isn't just about better numbers — it's about building an organization that makes confident, data-driven decisions instead of reacting to noise.
Want to stop your own fire drills before they start? Use Hex to build a bottoms-up forecast that shows not just how much pipeline is coming—but when. That's the difference between a marketing team that reports on what happened and one that shapes what happens next. Panic burns time, accurate forecasting saves it.